Penerapan Model Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain dalam Meramalkan Indeks Harga Konsumen Kabupaten Bulukumba

Authors

  • Nurul Azizah Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
  • Dian Firmayasari S Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
  • Hukmah Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
  • Suriani M Universitas Muhammadiya Bulukumba

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30605/proximal.v8i1.5196

Keywords:

Inflasi, IHK, Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain

Abstract

Abstrak.  Inflasi merujuk pada peningkatan harga secara umum dan berkelanjutan dari barang dan jasa dalam suatu perekonomian yang diukur melalui indeks harga. Peningkatan IHK menyebabkan kenaikan harga yang mempengaruhi tingkat inflasi. Dalam penelitian ini akan diteliti terkait hasil peramalan indeks harga konsumen di Kabupaten Bulukumba dengan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) di Kabupaten Bulukumba mengalami kenaikan secara signifikan mulai dari bulan Mei 2024 hingga Desember 2025. Hasil peramalan dengan metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain memiliki tingkat akurasi yang tinggi dengan nilai MAPE 10% yaitu sebesar 0,52%.

Kata Kunci:     Inflasi, IHK, Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain

Abstract. Inflation refers to the general and sustained increase in prices of goods and services in an economy as measured through a price index. An increase in the Consumer Price Index causes an increase in prices which affects the inflation rate. In this research, we will examine the results of forecasting the consumer price index in Bulukumba Regency using the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method. The results of the research show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Bulukumba Regency has increased significantly from May 2024 to December 2025. The forecasting results using the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method have a high level of accuracy with a MAPE value <10%, namely 0.52 %.

Keywords: Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain.

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References

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Published

2025-01-29

How to Cite

Nurul Azizah, Dian Firmayasari S, Hukmah, & M, S. (2025). Penerapan Model Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain dalam Meramalkan Indeks Harga Konsumen Kabupaten Bulukumba. Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika Dan Pendidikan Matematika, 8(1), 349–365. https://doi.org/10.30605/proximal.v8i1.5196

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Integrasi Matematika, Teknologi, dan Budaya dalam Pendidikan dan Aplikasi Terapan

Section

Articles

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